Politics Who will pass the cabinet test at halfway point of Liberal mandate?

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FREDERICTON - Shawn Graham came to power boasting that he could assemble a strong team around him.

Enlarge Photo

Premier Shawn Graham in his office with a painting by Gerard Collins behind him.

Now, almost halfway through his mandate, the Liberal premier may be looking to revamp his cabinet with an eye to the 2010 election.

Predicting cabinet shuffles is a routine political parlour game that becomes amplified as elections draw nearer. The premier will want to send to the backbenches any ministers who do not intend to re-offer, promote MLAs who have worked hard, or use a cabinet post to shore up support in vulnerable ridings.

The premier isn't expected to rearrange the cabinet this summer, but Liberal sources indicate that changes to the front bench could be timed to coincide with the second anniversary the government forming power on Oct. 3. Rick Myers, a political scientist at St. Thomas University, says the timing is right for a shuffle, although he is questioning the wisdom of a major shakeup, which could create more problems than solutions for the premier.

"Typically, this (midterm) would be exactly the time a premier or prime minister would consider shuffling positions in the cabinet, and that would be particularly true if you have ministers who have had difficulty with their files and there have been a couple (for Graham)," Myers says. "The question for the premier is to what extent he wants to endorse the work of the ministers in those cases."

Graham has twice tinkered with his cabinet to lighten heavy workloads for specific ministers or to agree to a request for a promotion from the backbenches.

Rearranging the executive council in the fall would still give new ministers a chance to learn their responsibilities before the legislature convenes in November.

The most talked-about possible departure is that of Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour Minister Ed Doherty, who has been besieged over his handling of two higher-education reports that have stirred up backers of academic freedom and left students feeling ignored by the proposed reforms. The Liberals must keep Saint John as a stronghold in the next election, so Graham cannot afford to dump Doherty, but he could relieve Energy Minister Jack Keir's doulbe workload by giving the Saint John MLA Supply and Services.

Jean-Guy Finn's report on the restructuring of local governance is expected in the fall. The enormity of the proposed changes will require a steady hand in the local government portfolio to manoeuvre them through the legislature and sell the changes to New Brunswickers, a skill that the premier may conclude the current minister, Carmel Robichaud, does not possess.

Finance Minister Victor Boudreau held both finance and the local government portfolio for a year and he is also expected to introduce significant tax reforms in the March budget. Running both departments was an enormous challenge for Boudreau once, but Graham needs one of his most trusted and capable ministers in local government. So it wouldn't be a stretch to see the finance minister asked to lead both departments again.

"I suspect the premier and the finance minister will take a strong role on that one, to the extent that (changes to the government strucutre) will largely be taxing authority and implications," Myers says.

The future of Education Minister Kelly Lamrock could prove a delicate balancing act for Graham. Lamrock has been pilloried by special interest groups and some parents over his handling of the early French immersion file. The minister has been by turns resolute and willing to appear as though he's willing to compromise in the face of criticism of the govenment's plan to end French second language instruction before Grade 5 in the province's schools. He's supposed to issue a final decision on Aug. 5. Graham could say in the fall that it is time for Lamrock to tackle a new challenge.

Such a move could hand opponents of the government's decision a victory by offering them a new minister, which could patch up many of the wounds caused over the past several months. However, Graham may not see any value in switching the minister after the final decision has been made and would rather keep a top minister in such an important department.

On the Liberal front benches ,it is hard to see any new faces in the key departments of finance, energy and health. Graham could use the opportunity to promote Justice Minister T.J. Burke, who has developed into a strong cabinet member in his relatively low-profile department. That could make him a candidate to head a ministry that needs a change of direction, such as post-secondary education, training and labour.

There are several ministers who, for health or age reasons, could be looking at retiring. They include Agriculture and Aquaculture Minister Ronald Ouellette, Tourism and Parks Minister Stuart Jamieson, Environment Minister Roland Haché and Eugene McGinley, the secretary of state of seniors and housing.

If spots open up in cabinet, there will be, as always, jockeying by several backbenchers for a seat around the big table. Moncton East MLA Chris Collins, Bathurst MLA Brian Kenny and Southwest Miramichi MLA Rick Brewer are all potential ministers.