Revised immigration targets offer chance to 'regroup'

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The federal government’s updated immigration plan should offer a chance to build capacity in the newcomer settlement and retention spheres in the Saint John region, experts say.

A new federal immigration plan released last week doesn’t include a target increase for 2026, instead holding at the 2025 target of 500,000 immigrants.

A revision to the Atlantic Immigration Program specifically, however, shows steep cuts to targets, dropping from 11,500 to 6,500 in 2024, down from 14,500 to 8,500 in 2025 and then a freeze at 8,500 in 2026.

According to previous targets, this year was supposed to see 8,500 people coming to the Atlantic provinces through a program that connects immigrants with job vacancies.

But while there are cuts to the Atlantic Immigration Program targets, increases to numbers under the provincial nominee program means there shouldn’t be any major reductions to immigration into New Brunswick overall, said Andrew Beckett, interim CEO of Envision Saint John: The Regional Growth Agency.

Population growth is part of Envision’s mandate, Beckett noted, with the agency working on workforce development and talent attraction. The agency has set its own target of adding 25,000 to the region’s population by 2030.

Beckett said to his understanding, the Atlantic Immigration Program was an “undersubscribed” program.

“There weren’t enough employers to drive the numbers that were allowed for in the immigration targets that had been set,” he said.

“On an overall standpoint, we’re not seeing anything that causes any concern at this point in time. We think there’s going to be a strong available immigrant stream coming,” Beckett added.

According to the press release announcing the federal targets, the plan “is tailored to support economic growth while balancing with the pressures in areas like housing, healthcare and infrastructure.”

Saint John Newcomers Centre managing director Mohamed Bagha noted immigration targets overall for Canada are still growing to 485,000 in 2024 and 500,000 in 2025. He called 2026 a “stabilizing year.”

“Absolutely, there will be impact, but one of the major challenges I think we face across the country is how can we ensure we have capacities built into a system for improving social determinants of health?”

There needs to be investments across the country in the settlement sector and integration support in order to boost retention, Bagha said.

These, he said include supports in all facets of life from housing, to language, pre-employment and socialization, connecting with schools and healthcare to navigating drivers’ licences and the local lingo.

“What the new targets do is they instill confidence into the system,” he added. “And to ensure that we do have the capacity that we can build over the year.”

Beckett noted immigration will be the main driver for population growth moving forward, listing the mounting challenge of an aging workforce and population decline as deaths outpace births. This, he noted, is not without growing pains.

“If you look at the last couple of years, there has been aggressive immigration numbers, and so we’re seeing strains in the system in a lot of different ways,” Beckett said, listing housing, settlement support, transportation services and employment requirements as a few examples.

“In some way sort of steadying down the numbers does give everybody a chance to make sure that we’re properly servicing the newcomers that are entering our communities.”

Housing remains a challenge, Bagha said, though he added he’s seeing advances in this area.

“We have never talked about housing like we are talking about it now.”

Though a stall in number growth offers a chance for immigrant supports to catch up, Mohamed said targets will need to keep growing to meet labour market needs.

“It definitely needs to be increased, but we need to get our act together,” he said. “It’s basically time to regroup and rethink and come up with better solutions.”

With files from Adam Huras