Wild Atlantic hurricane season is coming, experts warn

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An early forecast for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season is warning it will be “extremely active,” with up to 23 named storms compared to a 30-year average of 14.

“Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favourable wind shear conditions,” reads the report from Colorado State University (CSU).

“Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season.

“A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. This forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early April outlook.

“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”

In mid-September, post-tropical storm Lee hammered New Brunswick, causing widespread damage in the southern, central, and eastern parts of the province. Post-tropical storm Philippe, which hit in early October, did less damage than expected.

The CSU report predicts 11 Atlantic hurricanes will form this year, compared to a 30-year average of 7.2. Five of them are forecast to be “major,” compared to a 30-year average of 3.2.

The forecast “has modest long-term skill when evaluated in hindcast mode.”

“While the skill of this prediction is low, our confidence is higher than normal this year for an early April forecast given how hurricane-favourable the large-scale conditions appear to be.

“The skill of CSU’s forecast updates increases as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches. We also present probabilities of exceedance for hurricanes and accumulated cyclone energy to give interested readers a better idea of the uncertainty associated with these forecasts.”

Environment Canada hasn’t released its hurricane season forecast yet.